Analysis of international oil prices in 2022

In terms of international oil prices, the news guides the market. The oil market in the coming year is expected to move out of the trend of stabilizing first and then falling.

Prices were high in the first half of the year and low in the second half of the year. The center of gravity of oil price fluctuations throughout the year was between US$65-70/barrel. From the perspective of trends, the international oil market's price focus is likely to gradually shift downward.

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This is not only caused by the increase in supply and the decrease in demand, but also by the background of ever-tightening monetary policy. The monetary policy shift will first impact the macro market. Crude oil, as a product with strong macro attributes, will suppress the overheated economy after tightening the policy, and the demand side will be affected; at the same time, after increasing investment, the supply will gradually return to the level before the epidemic. . With the efforts of both supply and demand, the center of gravity of the oil market is likely to show a downward trend.

Because the current Chinese refined oil prices are highly linked to international crude oil prices, regardless of cost or policy considerations, as crude oil prices rise and fall, on the one hand, China’s refined oil retail prices will rise and fall along with the trend, and on the other hand, the mentality of market players The ups and downs were obvious, which led to the adjustment of the wholesale price of refined oil.